Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams has a solid lead in the crowded Democratic primary for mayor, with a seven-point edge over former Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, according to a new poll released Monday.
Adams garnered backing from 24 percent of the 800 likely Democratic voters, followed by 17 percent for Garcia, the NBC/Politico poll conducted by Marist College found.
It was the first survey in which Yang had dropped beyond third place.
No other candidate cleared 10 percent. City Comptroller Scott Stringer — whose campaign was rocked by two sexual misconduct accusations — captured just 7 percent support.
Retired Citigroup executive Ray McGuire, former federal and city housing chief Shaun Donovan and ex-not-for profit executive Diane Morales received 3 percent support each. Rapper Paperboy Prince registered one percent support.
And the number of undecided voters is shrinking, down to 13 percent in the poll.
Since no candidate cleared 50 percent of the vote, the winner of the primary would be selected by the new ranked-choice voting system, where voters can rank candidates one through five. Through a process of elimination, voters’ next choices are transferred to the remaining top candidates.
Marist crunched the numbers and found that Adams and Garcia would be the last two candidates standing — with Adams beating her 56 percent to 44 percent.
Adams’ 7 point lead is outside the poll’s plus or minus 3.8 percentage point margin of error.
“This is a very fluid race because of the statistical uncertainty of ranked-choice voting,” said Marist College polling director Lee Miringoff.
He also said the number of undecided voters adds to the uncertainty.
“Undecided voters could make a big difference if they break one way,” Miringoff said.
The Marist survey is just the latest to show that Adams is the front-runner.
A PIX/Emerson College poll released last week had Adams leading Wiley by six points.
The poll also spelled trouble for Yang. Based on high name recognition, Yang had led in early polls but recent surveys suggested he’s fading.
“Yang has been on a descent. He was way up there but he has not been able to sustain that support,” Miringoff said.
The poll also revealed stark demographic divides undergirding the eight candidate 2021 Democratic primary race.
Adams has managed to consolidate much of the city’s politically powerful black voting base, winning 43 percent of their votes in the poll. That’s four times as much as the next closest candidate, Maya Wiley, who captured just 11 percent.
Adams is also cleaning up with right-leaning and centrist voters in the primary, capturing 42 percent of voters who describe themselves as conservative or very conservative and 29 percent of moderates, the poll finds.
Meanwhile, Garcia appears to be consolidating the Big Apple’s other major primary voting block — white voters. She captured 28 percent of whites polled, well ahead of Wiley, who is in second place with 18 percent.
A good chunk of Garcia’s support appears to be coming from the political base of scandal-scarred Stringer.
She is winning 28 percent of the vote in Manhattan — compared to just an astonishingly low seven percent for Stringer, who previously served as Manhattan borough president and repped the Upper West Side for years in the state Assembly.
Not surprisingly, the survey found that Wiley’s strongest base of support is among voters who describe themselves as “very liberal,” winning 34 percent of those voters, compared to the 17 percent netted by Garcia, who placed second in the category.
Garcia leads among voters who describe themselves as “liberal” — the option offered between “moderate” and “very liberal,” with 25 percent of those voters.