Adams, Garcia in dead heat as race reshuffles in closing days

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It’s now a three man race!

Kathryn Garcia is in a dead heat with Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams for first place in the hotly contested Democratic mayoral primary — and could even edge him under the Big Apple’s new rank-choice voting system, according to a new poll.

The survey by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, also showed Maya Wiley gaining significant steam as she has consolidated support from the city’s progressive activists in recent days, moving into a competitive third place.

The poll was one of two released Monday that suggested the volatile and hotly competitive race to replace Mayor Bill de Blasio is undergoing yet another dramatic reshuffling in its closing days as the race’s one-time leader, Andrew Yang, saw his support continue to erode and fell into fourth place.

Adams scored 21 percent of the first round vote in the Manhattan Institute poll, while Garcia — the city’s former Sanitation Commissioner and emergency COVID food program ‘czar’ — netted 20 percent.

That’s a virtual tie, considering the survey’s margin of error at plus-or-minus 4.38 percent.

Manhattan Institute and Public Opinion Strategies

Wiley trailed just behind the front of the pack with 18 percent of the vote.

It’s a massive nine percentage point jump for Garcia and eight point surge for Wiley when compared to Manhattan Institute’s May poll of the race.

Pollsters called 500 likely Democratic primary voters from June 9 through June 13 for the survey.

That means it provides a clear snapshot of the boost that Wiley received after scoring key endorsements from two leading New York progressives, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Queens/The Bronx) and Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.

Mayoral candidate Eric Adams was at the top of a different poll released today by NBC/Politico.
Mayoral candidate Eric Adams was at the top of a different poll released today by NBC/Politico.
Stephen Yang

It also affirms Garcia’s momentum just days after the latest fundraising figures showed the longtime technocrat-turned-newbie politician outraised the rest of the field.

The poll lists all 13 candidates on the ballot in the Democratic primary, eight of whom have scored public financing through the city’s generous matching system.

And it calculates that it would take 11 rounds under the city’s rank choice voting system to select a winner — and that Garcia would squeak past Adams with 52 percent of the vote.

The findings are thematically similar to the other poll released just hours earlier by WNBC-TV/Ch. 4, Telemundo and Politico in the run-up to the final mayoral debate, set for Wednesday.

That survey — conducted by Marist College — showed Adams capturing 24 percent of the Democratic primary electorate and holding a 7 percentage point lead over Garcia, who had 17 percent of the vote.

Wiley followed closely behind with 15 percent while Adams had slid into fourth place with 13 percent of the vote.

“This is a very fluid race because of the statistical uncertainty of ranked-choice voting,” said Marist College polling director Lee Miringoff.

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